Gapology in Elections

This week we are talking about party identification and how important it can be to the way a person votes. As Hetherington and Keefe state, “certain issues can effect a person’s party identification, but usually it is party identification that affects his/her opinions about political issues,” (187). Since so many people form their ideas about policy based on the party they belong to, party identification becomes extremely important in elections.

At ABC.com, I first looked at the way party’s voted in 2008. It showed that of 39% of voters that consider themselves Democrat, 89% of them voted for Obama and of the 32% of voters that consider themselves Republican, 90% of them voted for McCain. Although these numbers are close, it does support the fact that Republicans tend to be more loyal to their party.

I also went to the CNN polls. However, I could not load the 2008 results so I am looking at 2004. As our reading this week suggested, the biggest voting gap in the 2004 election was the race/ethnicity gap and the exit polls confirm that. Of non-white men, only 30% voted for George W. while 67% voted for Kerry. Of non-white women, even less, 24%, voted for Bush while 76% voted for Kerry. Although more predictable, there was an ideology gap as well. Those having a more conservative ideology obviously preferred Bush with 84% to Kerry’s 15%. On the other hand, those having a more Liberal ideology, overwhelmingly preferred Kerry 85% to Bush’s 13%.

Our reading on Gapology also talked about a religion gap. It states that, “Judaism…[and]…mainline Protestantism actively teach moderate to liberal positions on many issues which the exit polls support somewhat. Although Judaism falls in line with the Gapology predictions with those who practice it supporting Kerry 74% to Bush’s 25%, Protestants actually preferred Bush over Kerry (58% : 40%). So although Gapology is pretty accurate, every election is different and the gaps could very or change depending on the candidates up for Presidency.