According to an American Presidency class I took, the conditions of a mandate are scope of victory, party-gains in Congress, new voter groups, policy signals, and consensus. Based on these conditions, I do not think Obama has a mandate.
First of all, although it seems as though Obama’s margin of victory is large, winning 365 electoral votes to McCain’s 173, it really isn’t. By measuring the popular vote, Obama only received 52% to McCain’s 46% and in order to have a mandate, there must be a 16.6% difference.
Also, although there was a gain of seats in Congress in the 2008 election, there was not enough for a mandate. If we were talking 2006, it might be different story, but this year, there was a gain of 21 seats in the house and in order to have a mandate, there must be a 39% gain.
Where Obama does benefit however, is in new voter groups. This year, the support of women was definitely thrown behind Obama. And although the Democratic Party usually attracts younger voters, even more supported Obama in 2008. And these new voting groups could give him some extra leverage.
As for policy signals and a consensus, most people seem to be happy with his policy decisions thus far. There are some that zealously refute them but overall, people seem to be okay with what he is doing, especially his constituents. It is obvious that many people in this country wanted change and that is was Obama is trying to do: implement change. There are always going to be people who do not agree and think it is wrong but Obama had more support than McCain and his supporters are so far, generally happy from what I see. So although Obama may not have a mandate, he does have a lot of support.
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I definitely agree that the youth vote boosted Obama - but do you think people are following Obama too blindly? How much really will change from the Bush years?
ReplyDeleteI agree with you that Obama does have a lot of support behind him and that he has attracted more support from certain segments of the population. I think its important to mention that this election is different from the past two presidential elections. Although the difference between McCain and Obama's percentage of the votes was 6%, I feel that when you compare it to the past two elections with Bush its different. The elections between Kerry and Gore were much closer. Its clear that Obama has a lot of political capital and support to help in especially in this first year.
ReplyDeleteAlthough the youth tended to favor Obama, I didn't say I agree 100%. Change takes time and young people tend to demand instant gratification. I think a lot of people may be upset when they realize it's going to take longer than they thought.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I do think Obama will be able to change more than Bush in the last two years, since he has a majority in Congress.